Monday, October 29, 2012

Probabilistic forecast of direct damage from Hurricane Sandy

These models are pretty preliminary, but Marshall and David convinced me to post this. I've been working with landfall statistics for only a couple of weeks, but I had enough data to put together a simple probabilistic forecast this morning for Sandy's direct damage (the number that will eventually appear on Wikipedia) based on landfall parameters (as they were forecast at around noon).  The distribution of outcomes is pretty wide, but the most likely outcome and expected loss are both at around $20B.  Below is the cumulative distribution function (left) and probability density function (right). 

click to enlarge

It will probably take several weeks for official estimates to converge. If I'm anywhere near right, I'll be sure to remind you.  Rather than explaining and caveating, I'm posting now since the power-outage frontier is two blocks away (it's dark south of 24th Street).

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