Thanks in large part to the authors of G-FEED, our knowledge of the link between climatic variables and rates of crime and conflict is extensive (e.g. see here and here). The wide-ranging effects of high temperatures on both interpersonal crimes and large-scale intergroup conflict have been carefully documented, and we’ve seen that precipitation shortfalls or surpluses can upendsocial stability in locations heavily dependent on agriculture. Variation in the El Niño cycle accounts for a significant share of global civil conflict, and typhoons lead to higher risks of property crime.
However, projections are also where much of the criticism of climate-conflict research lies. For example, see Frequently Heard Criticisms #1 and #6 in this post by Marshall. These criticisms are often reasonable, and important (unlike some other critiques you can read about in that same post). The degree to which impacts identified off of short-run climate variation can effectively predict future effects of long-run gradual climate change involves a lot of inherent (statistical and climatological) uncertainty and depends critically on likely rates of adaptation. Because the literature on adaptation is minimal and relies mostly on cross-sectional comparisons, we are limited in our ability to integrate findings into climate policy, which is often the motive for conducting research in the first place.