Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Testable predictions

As our blog wakes up from an apparent winter hibernation, I’ve been thinking about some predictions for the spring that came out last fall. One on my mind, of course, is that the Warriors will dominate the NBA. That one seems a pretty safe bet at this point.

A more daring bet was one put out last November on the corn season in 2016 by Weather Trends 360. It’s a pretty entertaining video, which I link to below. I'm not sure it's convincing, but I have to give them credit for making a very testable series of predictions. Specifically:

1) An unusually wet March and April, leading to delayed planting
2) A widespread freeze in early May
3) Very high temperatures and low rainfall in June and July, leading to low yields
4) Corn prices of $7 per bushel by July 2016 (or roughly double what they are right now)

So let’s see what happens. These are very specific and, in some cases, pretty bold predictions. If they turn out to be right, I’ll definitely be taking notice next year. Meanwhile, back to enjoying the Warriors.


  1. Right, testable predictions... and as for today, and about the delayed planting operations, I am not sure if this is what is really going on:
    I really enjoy your blog. Thank you very much!
    Kind regards,
    Paco Morell

  2. sorry i missed this comment. yes, as of today (Aug 25) corn is $3.30, and it hasn't been about $4 since late June. i wonder how the company is spinning their poor prediction